and which could not have been owing to inadvertency. on the publick by interest paid or to be paid for money borrowed, the utmost that the author should do, is to bring into the account the full interest for all that money. This he has done in p. 15; and he repeats it in p. 18, the very page I am now examining, 2,614,8921. To comprehend afterwards in the peace establishment the interest, would be laying twice to the account of the war part of the same sum. Suppose ten millions borrowed at 4 per cent. and the fund for payment of the interest to produce no more than 200,000l. The whole annual charge on the publick is 400,000l. It can be no more. But to charge the interest in one part of the account, and then the deficiency in the other, would be charging 600,000l. The deficiency of funds must therefore be also deducted from the peace establishment in the Considerations; and then the peace establishment in that author will be reduced to the same articles with those included in the sum I have already mentioned for the peace establishment before the last war, in the year 1753, and 1754. The misrepresentation of the encrease of the peace establishment is still more extraordinary than that of the interest of the unfunded debt. The encrease is great undoubtedly. However, the author finds no fault with it, and urges it only as a matter of argument to support the strange chime-deficiency of the fund created for payment of that rical proposals he is to make us in the close of his work for the encrease of revenue. The greater he made that establishment, the stronger he expected to stand in argument: but, whatever he expected or proposed, he should have stated the matter fairly. He tells us that this establishment is nearly 1,500,0007. more than it was in 1752, 1753, and other years of peace. This he has done in his usual manner, by assertion, without troubling himself either with proof or probability. For he has not given us any state of the peace establishment in the years 1753 and 1754, the time which he means to compare with the present. As I am obliged to force him to that precision, from which he always flies as from his most dangerous enemy, I have been at the trouble to search the Journals in the period between the two last wars and I find that the peace establishment, consisting of the navy, the ordnance, and the several incidental expences, Now is this writer amounted to 2,346,5941. wild enough to imagine, that the peace establish- Peace establishment in the Considera tions Deduct deficiency of land and malt Ditto of funds £. 3,609,700 300,000 502,400 3,107,300 Brought over £. 4,114,892 | in the end the worst economy in the world, hazarding the total loss of all the charge incurred, and of every thing along with it. The real difference in the. peace establishment is The actual interest of the funded debt, including that charged on the sinking fund 2,315,642 The actual inte rest of unfund 760,706 Encrease of peace establishments, and interest of new debt 3,236,348 Errour of the author - £. 878,544 It is true, the extraordinaries of the army have been found considerably greater than the author of the Considerations was pleased to foretel they would be. The author of The Present State avails himself of that encrease, and, finding it suit his purpose, sets the whole down in the peace establishment of the present times. If this is allowed him, his errour perhaps may be reduced to 700,000l. But I doubt the author of the Considerations will not thank him for admitting 200,0001. and upwards, as the peace establishment for extraordinaries, when that author has so much laboured to confine them within 35,000Z. These are some of the capital fallacies of the author. To break the thread of my discourse as little as possible, I have thrown into the margin many instances, though God knows far from the whole, of his inaccuracies, inconsistencies, and want of common care. I think myself obliged to take some notice of them, in order to take off from any authority this writer may have; and to put an end to the deference which careless men are apt to pay to one who boldly arrays his accounts, and marshalls his figures, in perfect confidence that their correctness will never be examined.* However, for argument, I am content to take his state of it. The debt was and is enormous. The war was expensive. The best economy had not perhaps been used. But I must observe, that war and economy are things not easily reconciled; and that the attempt of leaning towards parsimony in such a state may be the worst management, and * Upon the money borrowed in 1760, the premium of one per cent. was for 21 years, not for 20; this annuity has been paid eight years instead of seven; the sum paid is therefore 640,000l. instead of 560,0001; the remaining term is worth 10 years and a quarter instead of 11 years; its value is 820,0001, instead of 880,0001.; and the whole value of that premium is 1,460,000l. instead of 1,440,000. The like errours are observable in his computation on the additional capital of three per cent. on the loan of that year. In like manner, on the loan of 1762, the author computes on five years payment instead of six; and says in express terms, that take 5 from 19, and there remain 13. These are not errours of the pen or the press; the several computations pursued in this part of the work with great diligence and earnestness prove them errours upon much deliberation. Thus the premiums in 1759 are cast up 90,000l. too little, an errour in the first rule of arithmetic. See Smart and Demoivre. But cui bono all this detail of our debt? Has the author given a single light towards any material reduction of it? Not a glimmering. We shall see in its place what sort of thing he proposes. But before he commences his operations, in order to scare the publick imagination, he raises by art magick a thick mist before our eyes, through which glare the most ghastly and horrible phantoms, Hunc igitur terrorem animi tenebrasque necesse est, Let us therefore calmly, if we can for the fright into which he has put us, appreciate those dreadful and deformed gorgons and hydras, which inhabit the joyless regions of an imagination fruitful in nothing but the production of monsters. His whole representation is founded on the supposed operation of our debt, upon our manufactures, and our trade. To this cause he attributes a certain supposed dearness of the necessaries of life, which must compel our manufacturers to emigrate to cheaper countries, particularly to France, and with them the manufacture. Thence consumption declining, and with it revenue. He will not permit the real balance of our trade to be estimated so high as 2,500,0007.; and the interest of the debt to foreigners carries off 1,500,000l. of that balance. France is not in the same condition. Then follows his wailings and lamentings, which he renews over and over, according to his custom -a declining trade, and decreasing specie-on the point of becoming tributary to France-of losing Ireland-of having the colonies torn away from us. The first thing upon which I shall observe is,† what he takes for granted as the clearest of all propositions, the emigration of our manufacturers to France. I undertake to say that this assertion is totally groundless, and I challenge the author to bring any sort of proof of it. If living is cheaper in France, that is, to be had for less specie, wages are proportionably lower. No manufacturer, let the living be what it will, was ever known to fly for refuge to low wages. Money is the first thing which attracts him. Accordingly our wages attract artificers from all parts of the world. From two shillings to one shilling, is a fall in all men's imaginations, which no calculation upon a differ "The annuities borrowed in 1756 and 1758 are," says he, "to " continue till redeemed by parliament." He does not take notice that the first are irredeemable till February 1771, the other till July 1782. In this the amount of the premiums is computed on the time which they have run. Weakly and ignorantly; for he might have added to this, and strengthened his argument, such as it is, by charging also the value of the additional one per cent from the day on which he wrote, to at least that day on which these annuities become redeemable. To make ample amends, however, he has added to the premiums of 15 per cent. in 1759, and three per cent in 1760, the annuity paid for them since their commencement; the fallacy of which is manifest; for the premiums in these cases can be neither more nor less than the additional capital for which the publick stan is engaged, and is just the same whether five or 500 years annuity has been paid for it. In private life, no man persuades himself that he has borrowed 2001. because he happens to have paid 20 years interest on a loan of 1001. ↑ P. 30, 31, 32. ence in the price of the necessaries of life can compensate. But it will be hard to prove that a French artificer is better fed, clothed, lodged, and warmed, than one in England; for that is the sense, and the only sense, of living cheaper. If, in truth and fact, our artificer fares as well in all these respects as one in the same state in France--how stands the matter in point of opinion and prejudice, the springs by which people in that class of life are chiefly actuated? The idea of our common people concerning French living is dreadful; altogether as dreadful as our author's can possibly be of the state of his own country; a way of thinking that will hardly ever prevail on them to desert to France.* But, leaving the author's speculations, the fact is, that they have not deserted; and of course the manufacture cannot be departed, or departing, with them. I am not indeed able to get at all the details of our manufactures; though, I think, I have taken full as much pains for that purpose as our author. Some I have by me; and they do not hitherto, thank God, support the author's complaint, unless a vast encrease of the quantity of goods manufactured be a proof of losing the manufacture. On a view of the registers in the West-riding of Yorkshire, for three years before the war, and for the three last, it appears, that the quantities of cloths entered were as follows: In this manner this capital branch of manufacture has encreased, under the encrease of taxes; and this not from a declining, but from a greatly flourishing, period of commerce. I may say the same on the best authority of the fabrick of thin goods at Halifax; of the bays at Rochdale; and of that infinite variety of admirable manufactures that grow and extend every year among the spirited, inventive, and enterprising traders of Manchester. A trade sometimes seems to perish when it only assumes a different form. Thus the coarsest wool In a course of years a few manufacturers have been tempted abroad, not by cheap living, but by immense premiums, to set up as masters, and to introduce the manufacture. This must happen lens were formerly exported in great quantities to Russia. The Russians now supply themselves with these goods. But the export thither of finer cloths has encreased in proportion as the other has declined. Possibly some parts of the kingdom may have felt something like a languor in business. Objects like trade and manufacture, which the very attempt to confine would certainly destroy, frequently change their place; and thereby, far from being lost, are often highly improved. Thus some manufactures have decayed in the west and south, which have made new and more vigorous shoots when transplanted into the north. And here it is impossible to pass by, though the author has said nothing upon it, the vast addition to the mass of British trade, which has been made by the improvement of Scotland. What does he think of the commerce of the city of Glasgow, and of the manufactures of Paisley and all the adjacent country? has this any thing like the deadly aspect and facies Hippocratica which the false diagnostick of our state physician has given to our trade in general? Has he not heard of the iron works of such magnitude even in their cradle which are set up on the Carron, and which at the same time have drawn nothing from Sheffield, Birmingham, or Wolverhampton? This might perhaps be enough to shew the entire falsity of the complaint concerning the decline of our manufactures. But every step we advance, this matter clears up more; and the false terrours of the author are dissipated, and fade away as the light appears. "The trade and manufactures of "this country (says he) going to ruin, and a di"minution of our revenue from consumption must "attend the loss of so many seamen and artificers." Nothing more true than the general observation : nothing more false than its application to our circumstances. Let the revenue on consumption speak for itself: Here is no diminution. Here is, on the contrary, an immense encrease. This is owing, I shall be told, to the new duties, which may encrease the total bulk, but at the same time may make some diminution of the produce of the old. Were this the fact, it would be far from supporting the author's complaint. It might have proved that the burthen lay rather too heavy; but it would never prove that the revenue from consumption was impaired, which it was his business to do. But what is the real fact? Let us take, as the best instance for the purpose, the produce of the old hereditary in every country eminent for the skill of its artificers, and has nothing to do with taxes and the price of provisions. and temporary excise granted in the reign of Average, first period, eight. years, Encrease 525,317 538,542 £. 13,225 I have taken these averages as including in each a Average of strong beer, brewed in Encrease in the last period Barrels. 165,667 No It appears that, upon the whole, the people did not feel so much inconvenience from the new duties as to oblige them to take refuge in the private brewery. Quite the contrary happened in both these respects in the reign of King William; and it happened from much slighter'impositions. people can long consume a commodity for which they are not well able to pay. An enlightened reader laughs at the inconsistent chimera of our author, of a people universally luxurious, and at the same time oppressed with taxes and declining in trade. For my part, I cannot look on these duties as the author does. He sees nothing but the burthen. I can perceive the burthen as well as he; but I cannot avoid contemplating also the strength that supports it. From thence I draw the most comfortable assurances of the future vigour, and the ample resources, of this great, misrepresented country; and can never prevail on myself to make complaints which have no cause, in order to raise hopes which have no foundation. When a representation is built on truth and nature, one member supports the other, and mutual lights are given and received from every part. Thus, as our manufacturers have not deserted, nor the manufacture left us, nor the consumption declined, nor the revenue sunk; so neither has trade, which is at once the result, measure, and cause of the whole, in the least decayed, as our author has thought proper sometimes to affirm, constantly to suppose, as if it were the most indisputable of all propositions. The reader will see below the comparative state of our trade in three of the best years before our encrease of debt and taxes, and with it the three last years since the author's date of our ruin. In the last three years the whole of our exports 3,895,059 was between 44 and 45 millions. In the three years preceding the war, it was no more than from 4,060,726 35 to 36 millions. The average balance of the former period was 3,706,000l.; of the latter, something above four millions. It is true, that whilst the impressions of the author's destructive war continued, our trade was greater than it is at present. One of the necessary consequences of the peace was, that France must gradually recover a part of those markets of which she had been originally in possession. However, after all these deductions, still the gross trade in the worst year of the present is better than in the best year of any former period of peace. A very great part Here is the effect of two such daring taxes as 3d. by the bushel additional on malt, and 3s. by the barrel additional on beer. Two impositions laid without remission one upon the neck of the other; and laid upon an object which before had been immensely loaded. They did not in the least impair the consumption: it has grown under them. * Although the publick brewery has considerably encreased in this latter period, the produce of the malt tax has been something less than in the former; this cannot be attributed to the new malt tax. Had this been the cause of the lessened consumption, the publick brewery, so much more burthened, must have felt it more. The cause of this diminution of the malt tax, I take £ £. 11,694,912 12,243,604 1754, £. £. The author endeavours to derogate from the balance in our favour as it stands on the entries, and reduces it from four millions, as it there appears, to no more than 2,500,0001. His observation on the looseness and inaccuracy of the export entries is just; and that the errour is always an errour of excess, I readily admit. But because, as usual, he has wholly omitted some very material facts, his conclusion is as erroneous as the entries he complains of. of our taxes, if not the greatest, has been imposed | both our own. This is just as ridiculous, as to since the beginning of the century. On the put against the general balance of the nation, how author's principles, this continual encrease of taxes much more goods Cheshire receives from London, must have ruined our trade, or at least entirely than London from Cheshire. The whole revolves checked its growth. But I have a manuscript of and circulates through this kingdom, and is, so far Davenant, which contains an abstract of our trade as regards our profit, in the nature of home for the years 1703 and 1704; by which it appears, trade, as much as if the several countries of Amethat the whole export from England did not then rica and Ireland were all pieced to Cornwall. The exceed 6,552,0197. It is now considerably more course of exchange with all these places is fully than double that amount. Yet England was then sufficient to demonstrate that this kingdom has the a rich and flourishing nation. whole advantage of their commerce. When the final profit upon a whole system of trade rests and centers in a certain place, a balance struck in that place merely on the mutual sale of commodities is quite fallacious. 5thly. The custom-house entries furnish a most defective, and, indeed, ridiculous idea of the most valuable branch of trade we have in the world,-that with Newfoundland. Observe what you export thither; a little spirits, provision, fishing lines, and fishing hooks. Is this export the true idea of the Newfoundland trade in the light of a beneficial branch of commerce? Nothing less. Examine our imports from thence; it seems upon this vulgar idea of exports and imports, to turn the balance against you. But your exports to Newfoundland are your own goods. Your import is your own food; as much your own, as that you raise with your ploughs out of your own soil; and not your loss, but your gain; your riches, not your poverty. But so fallacious is this way of judging, that neither the export nor import, nor both together, supply any idea approaching to adequate of that branch of business. The vessels in that trade go straight from Newfoundland to the foreign market; and the sale there, not the import here, is the measure of its value. That trade, which is one of your greatest and best, is hardly so much as seen in the customhouse entries; and it is not of less annual value to this nation than 400,000l. 6thly. The quality of your imports must be considered as well as the quantity. To state the whole of the foreign import as loss, is exceedingly absurd. All the iron, hemp, flax, cotton, Spanish wool, raw silk, woollen and linen yarn, which we import, are by no means to be considered as the matter of a merely luxurious consumption; which is the idea too generally and loosely annexed to our import article. These above mentioned are materials of industry, not of luxury, which are wrought up here, in many instances, to ten times, and more, of their original value. Even where they are not subservient to our exports, they still add to our internal wealth, which consists in the stock of useful commodities, as much as in gold and silver. In looking over the specifick articles of our export and import, I have often been astonished to see for how small a part of the supply of our consumption, either luxurious or convenient, we are indebted to nations properly foreign to us. On this point of the custom-house entries I shall make a few observations. 1st. The inaccuracy of these entries can extend only to FREE GOODS, that is, to such British products and manufactures, as are exported without drawback and without bounty; which do not in general amount to more than two-thirds at the very utmost of the whole export even of our home products. The valuable articles of corn, malt, leather, hops, beer, and many others, do not come under this objection of inaccuracy. The article of CERTIFICATE GOODS re-exported, a vast branch of our commerce, admits of no errour, (except some smaller frauds which cannot be estimated,) as they have all a drawback of duty, and the exporter must therefore correctly specify their quantity and kind. The author therefore is not warranted from the known errour in some of the entries, to make a general defalcation from the whole balance in our favour. This errour cannot effect more than half, if so much, of the export article. 2dly. In the account made up at the inspector general's office, they estimate only the original cost of British products as they are here purchased; and on foreign goods, only the prices in the country from whence they are sent. This was the method established by Mr. Davenant; and, as far as it goes, it certainly is a good one. But the profits of the merchant at home, and of our factories abroad, are not taken into the account: which profit on such an immense quantity of goods exported and re-exported cannot fail of being very great: five per cent. upon the whole, I should think, a very moderate allowance. 3dly. It does not comprehend the advantage arising from the employment of 600,000 tons of shipping, which must be paid by the foreign consumer, and which, in many bulky articles of commerce, is equal to the value of the commodity. This can scarcely be rated at less than a million annually. 4thly. The whole import from Ireland and America, and from the West Indies, is set against us in the ordinary way of striking a balance of imports and exports; whereas the import and export are These considerations are entirely passed over by the author; they have been but too much neglected by most who have speculated on this subject. But they ought never to be omitted by those who |