An Introduction to Probability and Inductive LogicCambridge University Press, 2 jul 2001 - 302 páginas This is an introductory textbook on probability and induction written by one of the world's foremost philosophers of science. The book has been designed to offer maximal accessibility to the widest range of students (not only those majoring in philosophy) and assumes no formal training in elementary symbolic logic. It offers a comprehensive course covering all basic definitions of induction and probability, and considers such topics as decision theory, Bayesianism, frequency ideas, and the philosophical problem of induction. The key features of the book are: * A lively and vigorous prose style* Lucid and systematic organization and presentation of the ideas* Many practical applications* A rich supply of exercises drawing on examples from such fields as psychology, ecology, economics, bioethics, engineering, and political science* Numerous brief historical accounts of how fundamental ideas of probability and induction developed.* A full bibliography of further reading Although designed primarily for courses in philosophy, the book could certainly be read and enjoyed by those in the social sciences (particularly psychology, economics, political science and sociology) or medical sciences such as epidemiology seeking a reader-friendly account of the basic ideas of probability and induction. Ian Hacking is University Professor, University of Toronto. He is Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada, Fellow of the British Academy, and Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. he is author of many books including five previous books with Cambridge (The Logic of Statistical Inference, Why Does Language Matter to Philosophy?, The Emergence of Probability, Representing and Intervening, and The Taming of Chance). |
Índice
Logic | 1 |
What Is Inductive Logic? | 11 |
HOW TO CALCULATE PROBABILITIES | 23 |
Elementary Probability Ideas | 37 |
Conditional Probability | 47 |
The Basic Rules of Probability | 58 |
Bayes Rule | 69 |
HOW TO COMBINE PROBABILITIES AND UTILITIES | 79 |
Coherence | 163 |
Learning from Experience | 171 |
PROBABILITY AS FREQUENCY | 189 |
Normal Approximations | 201 |
Significance and Power | 209 |
Confidence and Inductive Behavior | 229 |
PROBABILITY APPLIED TO PHILOSOPHY | 247 |
Learning from Experience as an Evasion of the Problem of Induction | 256 |
Maximizing Expected Value | 98 |
Decision under Uncertainty | 114 |
KINDS OF PROBABILITY | 127 |
Theories about Probability | 140 |
PROBABILITY AS A MEASURE OF BELIEF | 151 |
Inductive Behavior as an Evasion of the Problem of Induction | 261 |
Answers to the Exercises | 269 |
Further Reading | 293 |
300 | |
Otras ediciones - Ver todo
An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic Ian Hacking No hay ninguna vista previa disponible - 2001 |
An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic Ian Hacking No hay ninguna vista previa disponible - 2001 |
Términos y frases comunes
basic rules Bayes Bayesian belief-type probability Bernoulli trials Bernoulli's Theorem betting rate bulbs called chance setup Chapter conclusion conditional probability confidence intervals decision degrees of belief dogmatists drawing event evidence example expected value expected value rule fair coin false frequency-type probabilities gamble gambler gambler's fallacy Gotterdam green balls heads Hence Hume idea independent inductive behavior inductive logic inductive reasoning likelihood Lotto lung cancer margin of error mean mutually exclusive Neyman null hypothesis oarfish occur Odd Question outcomes Pascal's payoff personal probability philosophical possible posterior probabilities Pr(A Pr(B premises prior probabilities prize probability of getting probable number problem of induction proposition random reason red ball relative frequency result risk risky argument roulette wheel rules of probability sample sequence shock absorber significance test statement statistical statistically independent steroids strep throat Suppose Theorem theory tosses true utility valid
Referencias a este libro
Risk and Uncertainty in Dam Safety Desmond N. D. Hartford,Gregory B. Baecher Vista previa restringida - 2004 |