The Natural Rate of Unemployment: Reflections on 25 Years of the Hypothesis

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Rod Cross
Cambridge University Press, 22 jun. 1995 - 382 páginas
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For 25 years, theory about the causes of, and possible solutions to, the problem of unemployment has been dominated by Phelps' and Friedman's natural rate of unemployment hypothesis. This postulates that the equilibrium rate of unemployment consistent with steady inflation is determined by structural variables: sustainable reductions in unemployment can be achieved only by measures to change underlying microeconomic structures, such as benefit and pay bargaining systems. Belief in the hypothesis has faltered since the 1980s, the hypothesis being unable to explain the dramatic upward shifts in European unemployment rates. These essays reflect upon the fundamental structures underlying the hypothesis, assess the related evidence, and look forwards, suggesting possible modifications. In contrast to the single rate postulated by the natural rate hypothesis, several of the contributors propose that there are ranges of unemployment rates consistent with steady inflation.
 

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Índice

List of contributors
xi
Preface
xiii
Introduction
1
The origins and further development of the natural rate of unemployment
15
The natural rate as new classical macroeconomics
32
Theoretical reflections on the natural rate of unemployment
43
Of coconuts decomposition and a jackass the genealogy of the natural rate
57
The economics of adjustment
77
Is the natural rate hypothesis consistent with hysteresis?
181
The natural rate hypothesis and its testable implications
203
Nonlinear dependence in unemployment output and inflation empirical evidence for the UK
231
Prices wages and employment in the US economy a traditional model and tests of some alternatives
256
The natural rate in empirical macroeconomic models
299
Is the natural rate of unemployment a useful concept for Europe?
315
The natural rate of unemployment a fundamentalist Keynesian view
346
Politics and the natural rate hypothesis a historical perspective
362

Hysteresis and memory in the labour market
90
Models of the range of equilibria
101
Hysteresis revisited a methodological approach
153

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