The Limits of Econometrics
Econometric issues have provoked a lively and sometimes adversarial debate in the economics profession. The excitement and intellectual vitality of that debate is captured here for the reader in a lucid overview of econometric approaches, describing their advantages and limitations. This ambitious book focuses on the underlying methodological issues rather than concentrating upon econometric techniques. The limits of econometric investigations are identified through a critical appraisal of three different approaches associated with the work of Professors Hendry, Leamer and Sims. After explaining why the early optimism in econometrics was misplaced, it argues that rejection is not an appropriate response. It offers a rich spectrum of approaches to a problem of central importance in the development of modern economics. The book will appeal not only to all econometricians whatever their persuasion but also to all those with an interest in the methodology of economics.
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ECONOMICS DATA AND PROBABILITY
EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS AS SCIENTIFIC EXPLANATION
ECONOMETRICS AND POSITIVE ECONOMICS
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analysis applied econometric approach assumptions auxiliary hypotheses Bayes factor Bayesian behaviour Blaug Box-Jenkins causality Chapter classical coefficients cointegration component concept conclusion Cooley and LeRoy Cowles Commission critical decision degrees of belief discussion distributed lag dynamic econometric modelling econometricians economic hypotheses economic theory economists empirical equilibrium error term estimation evidence example experiment explicit falsification falsificationist forecasting framework Granger Hendry hypothe identified important induction inductive reasoning inference integrated interpretation investigator Leamer logical long-run macroeconometric models main hypothesis measurement method methodological norms minor premise non-systematic null hypothesis observed outcomes parameters particular Pesaran Popper pre-test bias predictions prior probabilistic probability problem proxy random variable refutation regression equation regressors rejected relationship requires restrictions role sample Sims Sims's simultaneous equations specification statement stationary statistical testing stochastic structural syllogism techniques testable theoretical time-series tion true Type II error vector autoregression white noise zero