SOME FREE THOUGHTS

UPON THE

PRESENT STATE OF AFFAIRS*.

WE

Written in the year 1714.

7HATEVER may be thought or practifed by profound politicians, they will hardly be able to convince the reasonable part of mankind, that the moft plain, fhort,

About a month before the demife of Queen Anne, the Dean having laboured to reconcile the minifters to each other without fuccefs, retired to the house of a friend in Berkshire, and never faw them more. But, during this retreat, he wrote the following treatise, which he thought might be of some use even in that juncture, and fent it up to London to be printed: but, upon fome difference in opinion between the author and the late Lord Bolingbroke, the publication was delayed till the Queen's death; and then he recalled his copy. It was afterwards placed in the hands of the late Alderman Barber, from whom it was obtained to be printed. The ruin of the ministry by this animofity among themselves was long foreseen and foretold by Swift; and it appears by Lord Bolingbroke's letter to Sir William Wyndham, that in his heart he renounced his friendfhip for Oxford long before the conclufion of the peace, tho' it did not appear till afterwards. "The peace", fays he, "which had been judged to be the only folid foundation where.་ upon we could erect a Tory system, and yet when it was "made we found ourselves at a ftand; nay, the very work, " which ought to have been the basis of our strength, was in part demolished before our eyes, and we were stoned with "the ruins of it." This event probably rendered the difunion of the miniftry visible; fome principally endeavouring to fecure themselves, fome still labouring to establish at all events the party they had espoused, which faw nothing but "encrease "of mortification, and nearer approaches to ruin". And it is not to be wondered, that when this treatise was written, the

Dean's

fhort, eafy, fafe, and lawful way to any good end is not more eligible, than one directly contrary in fome or all of thefe qualities. I have been frequently affured by great minifters, that politics were nothing but common fense; which, as it was the only true thing they fpoke, fo it was the only thing they could have wished I fhould not be lieve. God hath given the bulk of mankind a capacity to understand reason when it is fairly offered; and by reafon they would eafily be governed, if it were left to their choice. Thofe princes in all ages, who were most diftinguished for their myfterious fkill in government, found by the event, that they had ill confulted their own quiet, or the eafe and happiness of their people; nor hath pofterity remembered them with honour: fuch as Lyfander and Philip among the Greeks, Tiberius in Rome, Pope Alexander the fixth and his fon Cæfar Borgia, Queen Catherine de Medicis, Philip the fecond of Spain, with many others. Nor are examples lefs frequent of minifters, famed for men of deep intrigue, whofe politics have produced little more than murmurings, factions, and difcontents, which ufually terminated in the difgrace and ruin of the authors.

I can recollect but three occafions in a state, where the talents of such men may be thought neceffary: I mean in a ftate where the prince is obeyed and loved by his fub jects: first, in the negociation of a peace; fecondly, in adjusting the interefts of our own country with those of the nations round us, watching the several motions of our neighbours and allies, and preferving a due balance among them: laftly, in the management of parties and factions at home. In the firft of these cases I have often heard it obferved, that plain good sense and a firm adherence to the point have proved more effectual than all thofe arts, which I remember a great foreign minister VOL. II. Hh ufed

Dean's attempts to reconcile his friends, were unsuccessful; for Bolingbroke declares, that he abhorred Oxford to fuch a degree, that he would rather have fuffered banishment or death, than have taken measures in concert with him to have avoided either.

Hawkef.

When you have read this pamphlet, digito compefce labellam.

Orrery.

ufed in contempt to call the Spirit of negociating. In the fecond cafe much wifdom and a thorough knowledge in affairs both foreign and domestic are certainly required; after which I know no talents neceffary befides method and skill in the common forms of bufinefs. In the laft cafe, which is that of managing parties, there feems indeed to be more occafion for employing this gift of the lower politics, whenever the tide runs high against the court and miniftry, which feldom happens under any tolerable administration, while the true intereft of the nation is purfued. But here in England (for I do not pretend to establifh maxims of government in general) while the prince and miniftry, the clergy, the majority of landed men, and bulk of the people appear to have the same views and the fame principles, it is not obvious to me, how thofe at the helm can have many opportunities of fhewing their fkill in mystery and refinement, befides what themselves think fit to create.

I have been affured by men long practifed in business, that the fecrets of court are much fewer than we generally suppose; and I hold it for the greateft fecret of court, that they are fo: because the first springs of great events, like thofe of great rivers, are often fo mean and fo little, that in decency they ought to be hid: and therefore minifters are fo wife to leave their proceedings to be accounted for by reafoners at a distance, who often mould them into fyftems, that do not only go down very well in the coffee-house, but are fupplies for pamphlets in the present age, and may probably furnish materials for memoirs and histories in the next.

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It is true indeed, that even thofe who are very near the court, and are fuppofed to have a large share in the management of public matters, are apt to deduct wrong confequences by reafoning upon the caufes and motives. of thofe actions wherein themfelves are employed. great minifter puts you a cafe, and asks your opinion, but conceals an effential circumstance, upon which the whole weight of the matter turns; then he despiseth your understanding for counselling him no better, and concludes, he ought to truft entirely to his own wisdom. Thus he grows to abound in fecrets and referves even towards thofe, with whom he ought to act in the greatest confi

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dence and concert: and thus the world is brought to judge, that whatever be the iffue and event, it was all foreseen, contrived, and brought to pass by fome mafterftroke of his politics.

I could produce innumerable inftances, from my own memory and obfervation, of events imputed to the profound skill and address of a minifter, which in reality were either the mere effects of negligence, weakness, humour, paffion, or pride; or at beft, but the natural course of things left to themselves.

DURING this very feffion of parliament, a moft ingenious gentleman, who hath much credit with those in power, would needs have it, that in the late diffenfions at court, which grew too high to be any longer a fecret, the whole matter was carried with the utmost dexterity on one fide, and with manifeft ill conduct on the other. To prove this he made use of the most plaufible topics, drawn from the nature and difpofition of the feveral perfons concerned, as well as of her Majefty; all which he knows as much of as any man; and gave me a detail of the whole with fuch an appearance of probability, as committed to writing would pass for an admirable piece of fecret history. Yet I am at the fame time convinced by the ftrongest reafons, that the issue of thofe diffenfions, as to the part they had in the court and house of lords, was partly owing to very different causes, and partly to the fituation of affairs, from whence in that conjuncture they could not easily terminate otherwise than they did, whatever unhappy confequences they may have for the future.

IN like manner I have heard a phyfician pronounce with great gravity, that he had cured fo many patients of malignant fevers, and as many more of the fmall-pox; whereas in truth nine parts in ten of those who recovered owed their lives to the ftrength of nature, and a good, conftitution, while fuch a one happened to be their doctor..

BUT, while it is fo difficult to learn the fprings and motives of fome facts, and fo eafy to forget the circumftances of others, it is no wonder they fhould be fo grofsly mifreprefented to the public by curious inquifitive heads, who proceed altogether upon conjectures, and in rea foning upon affairs of ftate are fure to be mistaken by fearching

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fearching too deep. And as I have known this to be the frequent error of many others, fo I am fure it hath been perpetually mine, whenever I have attempted to difcover the caufes of political events by refinement and conje&ture; which I must acknowledge hath very much abated my veneration for what they call arcana imperii; whereof I dare pronounce, that the fewer there are in any adminiftration, it is just fo much the better.

WHAT I have hitherto faid, hath by no means been intended to detract from, the qualities requifite in those, who are trufted with the administration of public affairs; on the contrary, I know no ftation of life, where great abilities and virtues of all kinds are fo highly neceffary, and where the want of any is fo quickly or univerfally felt. A great minifter hath no virtue for which the public may not be the better, nor any defect by which the public is not certainly a fufferer. I have known more than once or twice within four years paft, an omiffion, in appearance very fmall, prove almost fatal to a whole fcheme, and very hardly retrieved. It is not always fufficient for the perfon at the helm, that he is intrepid in his nature, free from any tincture of avarice or cor ruption, and that he hath great natural and acquired abilities.

I never thought the reputation of much fecrecy was a character of any advantage to a minifter, because it put all other men upon their guard to be as fecret as he, and was confequently the occafion that perfons and things were always mifreprefented to him: because likewife too great an affectation of fecrecy is ufually thought to be attended with those little intrigues and refinements, which among the vulgar denominate a man a great politician; but among others is apt, whether defervedly or no, to acquire the opinion of cunning; a talent, which differs as much from the true knowledge of government, as that of an attorney from an able lawyer. Neither indeed am I altogether convinced, that this habit of multiplying secrets may not be carried on fo far as to ftop that communication, which is neceffary in fome degree among all who have any confiderable part in the management of public affairs: because I have obferved the inconveniencies arifing from a want of love between those who were

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