fore your Lordship, efpecially when I have the ambition of afpiring to that of being, with the greatest respect and truth,

MY LORD,,

Your Lordship's

most obedient, most obliged,

London, Feb. 22.

and moft humble fervant,

1711-12.

Some

Some FREE THOUGHTS upon the PRESENT STATE of AFFAIRS*.

W

Written in the year 1714.

7HATEVER may be thought or practifed by pro. found politicians, they will hardly be able to convince the reasonable part of mankind, that the moft plain,

fhort,

*About a month before the demife of Queen Anne, the Dean having laboured to reconcile the ministers to each other without fuccefs, retired to the house of a friend in Berkshire, and never faw them more. But, during this retreat, he wrote the following treatife, which he thought might be of fome use even in that juncture, and fent it up to London to be printed: but, upon fome difference in opinion between the author and the late Lord Bolingbroke, the publication was delayed till the Queen's death; and then he recalled his copy. It was afterwards placed in the hands of the late Alderman Barber, from whom it was obtained to be printed. The ruin of the ministry by this animosity among themselves, was long forefeen and foretold by Swift; and it appears by Lord Bolingbroke's letter to Sir William Wyndham, that in his heart he renounced his friendship for Oxford long before the conclufion of the peace, though it did not appear till afterwards. "The peace", fays he, "which had been judged to be the only folid foundation whereupon we could erect a Tory fyftem, and yet when it was made we found "ourselves at a stand; nay, the very work, which ought to have “ been the basis of our strength, was in part demolished before our eyes, and we were stoned with the ruins of it." This event probably rendered the difunion of the miniftry visible; fome princi. pally endeavouring to fecure themfelves, fome ftill labouring to eftablish at all events the party they had efpoufed, which faw no. thing but increase of mortification and nearer approaches to ruAnd it is not to be wondered, that when this treatife was

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fhort, eafy, fafe, and lawful way to any good end is not more eligible, than one directly contrary in fome or all of thefe qualities. I have been frequently affured by great minifters, that politics were nothing but common fense; which, as it was the only true thing they spoke, fo it was the only thing they could have wished I fhould not believe, God hath given the bulk of mankind a capacity to understand reafon when it is fairly offered; and by reafon they would eifily be governed, if it were left to their choice. Thofe princes in all ages, who were most diftinguished for their mysterious fkill in government, found by the event, that they had ill confulted their own quiet, or the eafe and happiness of their people; nor hath pofterity remembered them with honour; fuch as Lyfander and Philip among the Greeks, Tiberius in Rome, Pope Alexander the fixth and his fon Cæfar Borgia, queen Catherine de Medicis, Philip the fecond of Spain, with many others. Nor are examples lefs frequent of minifters, famed for men of deep intrigue, whole politics have produced little more than murmurings, factions, and difcontents, which ufually terminated in the difgrace and ruin of the authors.

I can recollect but three occafions in a state, where the talents of fuch men may be thought neceffary; I mean in a ftate where the prince is obeyed and loved by his fubjects: first, in the negociation of a peace; fecondly, in adjusting the intercfts of our own country with those of the nations round us, watching the feveral motions of our neighbours and allies, and preferving a due balance among them: laftly, in the management of parties and factions at home. In the fift of thefe cafes I have often heard it obferved, that plain good fenfe and a firm adherence to the point, have proved more effectual than all thofe arts, which I remember a great foreign minister uf

written, the Dean's attempts to reconcile his friends were unfuccefful; for Bolingbroke declares, that he abhorred Oxford to fuch a degree, that he would rather have fuffered banishment or death, than have taken meafures in concert with him to have avoided either. Hawkef.

When you have read this pamphlet, digito compefce labellum. Orrery.

VOL. IV.

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ed in contempt to call the fpirit of negociating. In the fecond cafe much wildom and a thorough knowledge in affairs, both foreign and domeftic, are certainly required: after which I know no talents neceffary befides method and skill in the common forms of business. In the laft cafe, which is that of managing parties, there feems indeed to be more occafion for employing this gift of the lower politics, whenever the tide runs high against the court and miniftry, which feldom happens under any tolerable administration, while the true intereft of the nation is purfued. But, here in England (for I do not pretend to establish maxims of government in general) while the prince and miniftry, the clergy, the majority of landed-men, and bulk of the people, appear to have the fame views and the fame principles, it is not obvious to me, how thofe at the helm can have many opportunities of fhewing their fkill in mystery and refinement, befides what themselves think fit to create.

I have been affured by men long practifed in business, that the fecrets of court are much fewer than we generally fuppofe; and I hold it for the greateft fecret of court, that they are fo: because the first springs of great events, like thofe of great rivers, are often fo mean and fo little, that in decency they ought to be hid: and therefore minifters are fo wife to leave their proceedings to be accounted for by reafoners at a distance, who often mould them into fyftems, that do not only go down very well in the coffee-houfe, but are fupplies for pam. phlets in the prefent age, and may probably furnish materials for memoirs and hiftories in the next.

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It is true indeed, that even those who are very near the court, and are fuppofed to have a large fhare in the management of public matters, are apt to deduct wrong confequences, by reafoning upon the caufes and motives of thofe actions wherein themfelves are employed. great minister puts you a cafe, and afks your opinion, but conceals an effential circumftance, upon which the whole weight of the matter turns; then he defpifeth your understanding for counselling him no better, and concludes he ought to truft entirely to his own wildom. Thus he grows to abound in fecrets and referves, even towards thofe, with whom he ought to act in the greatest confi.

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dence and concert; and thus the world is brought to judge, that whatever be the iffue and event, it was all forefeen, contrived, and brought to pals by fome mafterftroke of his politics.

I could produce innumerable instances, from my own memory and obfervation, of events imputed to the profound fkill and addrefs of a minifter, which in reality were either the mere effect of negligence, weakness, humour, paffion, or pride, or, at beit, but the natural courfe of things left to themselves.

During this very fellion of parliament, a moft ingenious gentleman, who hath much credit with thofe in power, would needs have it, that in the late diffenfions at court, which grew too high to be any longer a fecret, the whole matter was carried with the utmoft dexterity on one side, and with manifeft ill conduct on the other. To prove this, he made ufe of the most plausible topics, drawn from the nature and difpofition of the feveral perfons concern. ed, as well as of her majefty; all which he knows as inuch of as any man : and gave me a detail of the whole, with fuch an appearance of probability, as committed to writing would pafs for an admirable piece of fecret Lif tory. Yet I am at the fame time convinced by the strongest reasons, that the iffue of thofe diffenfions, as to the part they had in the court and house of lords, was partly owing to very different caufes, and partly to the fituation of affairs, from whence in that conjuncture they could not easily terminate otherwife than they did, whatever unhappy confequences they may have for the future.

In like manner I have heard a physician pronounce with great gravity, that he had cured fo many patients of malignant fevers, and as many more of the fmall pox; whereas in truth nine parts in ten of those who recovered, owed their lives to the ftrength of nature and a good constitution, while fuch a one happened to be their doctor,

But, while it is fo difficult to learn the springs and motives of fome facts, and fo eafy to forget the circumftances of others, it is no wonder they should be so grofly mifreprefented to the public, by curious inquifitive heads, who proceed altogether upon conjectures, and in reafoning upon affairs of ftate, are fure to be mistaken, by

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