Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

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Random House Publishing Group, 14 oct. 2008 - 368 páginas
33 Reseñas
Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.

Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.

This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.

The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.

However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.

Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.

Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time

A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
 

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LibraryThing Review

Reseña de usuario  - addunn3 - LibraryThing

The author discusses his observations about how we are fooled by random events into make false causal links. Many of his examples are from his financial trading experience. Well worth the reading ... Leer reseña completa

LibraryThing Review

Reseña de usuario  - bevok - LibraryThing

Probability and chance fascinate me. Many people believe in fate, or argue over the role of chance in the course they have taken in their lives. Those of us who operate in the world of financial ... Leer reseña completa

Índice

Two A BIZARRE ACCOUNTING METHOD
22
SOME ARCHITECTURAL
27
Three A MATHE MATICAL MEDITATION
43
Six SKEWNESS AND ASYMMETRY
97
Seven THE PROBLEM OF INDUCTION
116
T DEPENDS ON THE NUMBER OF MON KEYS 156
137
Nine IT IS EASIER TO BUY AND SELL
149
BEWARE THE p HLOSOPHER BUREAUCRAT
185
AM NOT SO INTELLIGENT
222
THE SKINNER plg EON EXPER MENT
229
CAR NEADES COMES TO ROME 255
237
BAC CHUS ABAND ONS ANTONY
245
Postscript THREE AFTERTHouGHTS IN
253
Acknowledgments for the First Edition
263
Notes
269
References
295

WHY WE DONT MARRY THE FIRST DATE
197
PROBABILITIES AND THE MEDIA
211

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Sobre el autor (2008)

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. He spent nearly two decades as a businessman and quantitative trader before becoming a full-time philosophical essayist and academic researcher in 2006. Although he spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flâneur meditating in cafés, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute. His main subject matter is “decision making under opacity”—that is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don’t understand.
 
Taleb’s books have been published in thirty-three languages.


From the Hardcover edition.

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